RAAC Steering Committee

January 23, 2018
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Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee - Steering Committee

851 SW Sixth Ave, Suite 1100
Portland, OR 97204

January 23, 2018

9:00am - 12:00pm Pacific Time

Agenda: 

9:00 – 9:15      Introductions and Schedule for the 2023 Adequacy Assessment

Presentation Materials for Morning

9:15 – 9:45      Major Changes to Resources and Loads                                          

  • Revised load model (STM with EE included in structural equations)
  • Bigger temperature year range for loads and wind (1929-2016)
  • Updated hydro constraints and revised Canadian operation                        
  • Generating resource update
  • Increased standby resource capability
  • Updated Energy GPS report on SW surplus, for import assumptions
  • Contracts – waiting for new submittals                        

9:45 – 10:15    Preliminary 2023 Results

  • Effect of new load forecast
  • Effect of temperature range
    • Standard 77 years (1929-2005)
    • Extended 88 years (1929-2016)
    • Last 30 years (1987-2016)
  • Capacity needed for adequacy

10:15 – 11:00  Major Policy Assumptions and Sensitivity Studies

  • SW import assumptions
    • Spot market availability and range for winter and summer
      • Decrease spot market as surrogate for SW gas shortage?
      • Increase summer spot market to reflect increased SW solar?
    • Purchase ahead (light load hours only) availability
  • High and low load forecasts
  • Effects of inputting EE targets directly (instead of incorporating in loads)
  • Other?

11:00 – 12:00  Considerations for a Revised Adequacy Standard for the PNW

  • Proposed new metrics (frequency, duration and magnitude)
  • Using the value of lost load to set adequacy thresholds
  • Economics of Electricity Adequacy, T Karier

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