Because future economic conditions are highly uncertain, the forecasts encompass a wide range of possibilities for future economic growth. The demand forecast includes three alternative sets of economic drivers. The key economic drivers project a healthy regional economy (albeit with a slower growth path than in the recent past). In addition to the base case, two alternative scenarios are considered, one representing a low-economic-growth scenario and the other a high-growth projection of the future.
The low-growth scenario reflects a future with slow economic growth, weak demand for fossil fuel, declining fuel prices, a slowdown in labor productivity, and a low inflation rate. On the other hand, the high-case scenario assumes faster economic growth, stronger demand for energy, higher prices for fossil fuel, sustained growth in labor productivity, and a higher inflation rate.
Comparison of Key Economic Drivers with Differing Economic Growth Rates
| Regional Trend | 2017 | 2022 | 2027 | 2041 | 2050 | ||||||
| Residential Units (1000s) | 6,157 | 6,592 | 7,004 | 8,066 | 8,722 | ||||||
| Commercial Floor space (millions SQF) | 3,530 | 3,729 | 3,924 | 4,625 | 5,105 | ||||||
| Industrial output (2016$) | 117 | 123 | 129 | 139 | 150 | ||||||
| Agricultural output (2016$) | 17 | 19 | 20 | 24 | 28 | ||||||
| High-growth Projection | 2017 | 2022 | 2027 | 2041 | 2050 | ||||||
| Residential Units (1000s) | 6,157 | 7,721 | 7,893 | 9,150 | 9,826 | ||||||
| Commercial Floor space (millions SQF) | 3,530 | 3,852 | 4,119 | 4,971 | 5,546 | ||||||
| Industrial output (2016$) | 117 | 132 | 146 | 176 | 206 | ||||||
| Agricultural output (2016$) | 17 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 32 | ||||||
| Low-growth Projection | 2017 | 2022 | 2027 | 2041 | 2050 | ||||||
| Residential Units (1000s) | 6,157 | 5,875 | 6,330 | 7,145 | 7,568 | ||||||
| Commercial Floors space (millions SQF) | 3,530 | 3,563 | 3,731 | 4,433 | 4,838 | ||||||
| Industrial output (2016$) | 117 | 113 | 111 | 102 | 99 | ||||||
| Agricultural output (2016$) | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
To derive these conditions, the Council used Global Insight’s long-term national forecast from Q3 2018. We applied the sector-level projections for low-growth and high-growth scenarios from that national forecast to the regional forecast trends.