The following table shows the end-use level loads for all end-uses for CanESM2 case. Overall growth in the residential sector is about 0.6% per year for the planning period (2022 – 2041). As expected, demand for space-heating is expected to decline while air-conditioning demand is expected to grow much faster than other end-uses. It should be noted that demand from electrification of transportation is reported separately in the transportation segment. More detailed information on the residential sector load forecast is available here.
Range of load forecast by end-use in Residential sector (average MW)
| 2018 | 2041- Low | 2041- Medium | 2041- High | Medium AAGR 2021-41 | |
| All | 8,139 | 9,462 | 9,552 | 9,728 | 0.59% |
| Space Heating | 1,793 | 1,538 | 1,552 | 1,582 | -0.89% |
| Water Heating Under 55 | 1,315 | 1,403 | 1,419 | 1,449 | -0.02% |
| Lighting | 1,018 | 1,224 | 1,235 | 1,254 | 0.86% |
| Refrigeration | 537 | 605 | 611 | 622 | 0.72% |
| Freezer | 100 | 121 | 122 | 124 | 1.01% |
| Clothes Washer | 41 | 53 | 54 | 54 | 1.04% |
| Clothes Dryer | 510 | 772 | 780 | 795 | 1.52% |
| Dishwasher | 160 | 277 | 279 | 283 | 2.51% |
| Cooking | 406 | 473 | 478 | 488 | 0.72% |
| Air Conditioning | 322 | 1,237 | 1,250 | 1,270 | 3.93% |
| Entertainment Center | 882 | 433 | 437 | 446 | -3.73% |
| Other Non-Substitutable[1] | 930 | 1,224 | 1,235 | 1,260 | 1.08% |
| Water Heating Over 55 | 126 | 100 | 101 | 102 | -1.19% |
Forecast Range
The range of residential load forecasts is presented below. Residential electricity consumption is forecast to be flat or grow at an average annual growth rate of between 0.18 and 0.58 percent per year between 2021 and 2041 (prior to netting of energy efficiency. The range of load forecasts across the three economic and three climate change trajectories vary between 8014-9726 aMW.
Range of Forecast for Residential Load (average MW)
Loads from 1998-2018 are observed; 2019-2049 are forecast. Future fluctuations in residential demand is due to fluctuations in temperatures among the three GCMs and differences in economic trajectories. Range of loads shown are not from a single GCM.
[1] Other non-substitutable refers to miscellaneous electric end-uses not covered in other end-use categories.