Early Discussions About Scenario Analysis Focus on Carbon, Renewables, and Climate Change Impacts

In March, the Council heard feedback from stakeholders about the draft set of scenarios it plans on using in its modeling to develop the Seventh Power Plan. The scenario analysis will help shed light on how different resource strategies will perform under a wide variety of potential future conditions.

The Council uses a planning model called the regional portfolio model to do the analysis. The process to update the model began about a year ago, and it is almost ready to use.

"We're nearing the end of the model's 30-day review period, and it looks really good," said Ben Kujala, system analysis manager. "The RPM is on schedule to be fully functional by the end of the month."

The draft scenarios, developed through conversations with a broad range of constituents, focus on five major areas:

• Carbon policy
• Major resource loss
• Pace of energy efficiency development
• Increased reliance on variable resources in the Northwest and from California
• Potential effects of climate change

In Council and resource strategies advisory committee meetings, interest focused on what it would take to reduce carbon emissions.

The EPA's proposed rule to lower power plant emissions is driving interest, but even before its planned finalization sometime this summer, stakeholders would like to have a general idea of what the impact of reducing carbon would be.

"It would be useful to know what it would cost to reduce carbon, even if it weren't tied to policies," noted Dick Adams, PNUCC.

Three of the proposed scenarios will address this question to help understand the costs and values of different actions. One explores the effects of meeting the EPA's goal of reducing the 2005 level of carbon emissions by 30 percent by 2030, proposed rule 111(d). 

Two other scenarios explore reducing carbon as much as possible with current commercially available technologies, and also with emerging technologies like storage and solid-state lighting. While testing new technologies in the RPM isn't likely, the results from looking at available technologies should help in understanding how new technologies could further lower carbon.

Understanding the potential impact of a large influx of generation from California's development of solar and wind power is another concern. Governor Jerry Brown has proposed raising the state's renewable energy mandate to 50 percent. 

Two scenarios would explore the costs and risks of relying on out-of-region electricity markets. One scenario assumes that California meets its 50 percent goal; the other evaluates the effects of different availability and price limits of Southwest markets.

Renewable generation is a big question for utilities here as well, and questions about how to integrate variable resources into the system came up. The updated RPM now includes a capacity resource requirement, along with energy needs. Although it isn't able to model system flexibility, comparing the information from the Council's Genesys model with the RPM's results will help in understanding operational questions.

"Ultimately," noted Power Division Director Tom Eckman, "the model tries to behave the way people in the real world would respond, adjusting to different conditions, giving us information about the strengths and risks of resource strategies. It provides strategic guidance as opposed to tactical guidance." 

Other scenarios test the costs and risks of losing a major resource, the pace of energy efficiency development, and the effects of climate change.

Climate change impacts would be felt in two ways: First, it would affect the region's hydrograph in less snowpack and earlier runoff, as well as warmer winters and summers. This would mean lower loads in the winter and higher loads in the summer. Second, data indicates that the Pacific Northwest will experience relatively milder effects, which could spur in-migration from people moving from harder hit states, meaning higher loads.

The Council wanted to hear from stakeholders about how it should model these possible changes. In its meeting with the resource strategies advisory committee, the consensus was to analyze the conditions as a sensitivity study.

More information on how the model is performing and what we're learning from the scenario analysis is expected to be shared in meetings with the Council sometime in late May or early June. Stay tuned for more details as the process to develop the Seventh Power Plan continues.