Over the next five years across the Pacific Northwest, significant load growth and changing system dynamics are creating risks for maintaining power system adequacy. This regional adequacy assessment for 2029
The Council uses an adequacy model called GENESYS to simulate the region’s bulk power system. In each simulation, representing one year, a simulated model shortfall event occurs over a time period when load cannot be served by resources in the model. However, a shortfall in the model does not necessitate an actual blackout will take place. Instead, the modeled shortfall signals that emergency measures are necessary to avoid the blackout. Such emergency measures could include high operating cost resources not in an active utility portfolio, high priced market purchases above normal import limit (such as those that occurred during January 2024’s winter storm event), as well as more extreme cases for calls for conservation by government officials (as in September 2022 California heatwave), or curtailment of fish and wildlife hydro operations (as happened during the 2001 Energy Crisis).
While a range of emergency measures are available to operators and decision makers, these measures are not part of the bulk power system modeling in GENESYS. Rather, the Council evaluates shortfalls as a signal for emergency measure needs. Using a new multi-metric adequacy framework, the Council’s adequacy approach provides information about the frequency, duration, and magnitude of potential shortfall events, and all metrics must be satisfied with their respective thresholds to yield an adequate system. The metrics include:
Loss of load events (LOLEV) sets a limit for the expected frequency of shortfall events to protect against frequent use of emergency measures. Duration Value at Risk sets a limit for shortfall duration to protect against tail-end (extreme) duration use of emergency measures. Peak Value at Risk sets a limit for maximum hour capacity shortfall to protect against tail-end (extreme) magnitude of emergency measures. Energy Value at Risk sets a limit for total annual energy shortfall to protect against tail-end (extreme) annual aggregate use of emergency measures. The adequacy assessment for 2029 explores how the Council’s 2021 Power Plan resource strategy supports an adequate system. The assessment accounts for system changes that will be implemented by 2029, including load growth, in-region resource developments, and out-of-region market fundamentals. Electric load is expected to substantially increase by 2029, due to data centers and electric vehicles. However, announced changes to thermal plant retirements, such as Valmy 1 & 2 and Jim Bridger 1 & 2 conversions from coal to gas fueling, and anticipated transmission expansion throughout the WECC, including Boardman-to-Hemingway in the region, appear to alleviate some of the challenges associated with the increased loads when coupled with the 2021 Plan’s resource strategy.
The 2021 Power Plan’s resource strategy recommends that between 750 and 1,000 average megawatts of cost-effective energy efficiency, at least 3,500 megawatts of renewable resources, 720 megawatts of low-cost and frequently deployable demand response be acquired, as well as increasing balancing up reserve requirements to 6,000 megawatts to respond to growing short-term uncertainty in variable energy resources (primarily wind and solar) by 2027. Because the resource strategy provides a range for both energy efficiency and renewable development, the Council created a “reference strategy” to test in this assessment. This reference represents the high-end of the Council’s cost-effective energy efficiency target (roughly equivalent to 1,300 average megawatts by 2029) and a renewable build consistent with many of the sensitivities analyzed in the plan that informed the strategy (roughly 6,600 megawatts by 2029).
The 2029 adequacy assessment tested a range of potential future conditions, including (1) the reference resource strategy (2) higher data center load growth, and (3) alternative trajectory within the resource strategy – the low end of the energy efficiency target.
The Reference scenario did not violate thresholds in any metric– frequency, duration, and magnitude – and therefore is deemed adequate. The Higher Data Center scenario used all the same assumptions from the reference case, except it added 1,600 average megawatts of additional power demand from the tech sector by 2029. The reference case anticipates roughly 2,400 of incremental tech-related aMW by 2029; the high data center scenario assumes 4,000 aMW. This scenario violated thresholds for all the metrics, and therefore is deemed inadequate. The Alternative Trajectory – Low End EE scenario used the same assumptions as the Reference case, but only met the low end of the efficiency target – 1,000 aMW instead of 1,300 aMW in 2029. This scenario satisfied some metrics (duration and energy), but it violated other metric thresholds (frequency and peak) and therefore is deemed inadequate.
The Reference scenario indicates that the 2021 Plan’s resource strategy mostly eliminates summer challenges and greatly mitigates winter challenges – with only a minor set of system conditions that pose adequacy concerns in January evening ramp that are within the acceptable adequacy limits. However, should only the low end of cost-effective energy efficiency target be achieved, the region may experience winter challenges throughout majority hours of the day, with the greatest need in the morning and evening ramps, as well additional challenges in spring and summer. The Higher Data Center scenario further exacerbates the winter, spring and summer challenges as the resource strategy is insufficient to meet the potentially much higher electrification loads.
As the region is facing unprecedented load growth uncertainty driven by data center and transportation electrification, as well as building electrification, the Council will continue tracking and planning for these risk factors in the development of the upcoming Power Plan and the eventual resource strategy to address the evolving needs of the region.
See the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee for more information.
