What is GENESYS ?
The GENESYS (Generation Evaluation System) model was developed to assess the adequacy of the Pacific Northwest regional power supply, given uncertain future conditions. It is also the primary analytical tool the Council uses to quantify the impacts of modifying hydroelectric system operations (e.g., to accommodate the changing needs of all river users). GENESYS is a constrained economic dispatch model that uses Monte Carlo sampling to assess the effects of uncertainty in demand, stream flows, wind and solar generation and generator forced outages. The model simulates the dispatch of hydroelectric projects and other generating resources in a multi-stage process to emulate real-life electric utility decision making and operations.
Besides being used annually to determine if the regional supply is adequate, it also calculates the Adequacy Reserve Margin and the Associated System Capacity Contribution for new resources, which are inputs to the Council’s Regional Portfolio Model and are essential to ensuring that resource strategies in the Council’s power plan will provide adequate future power supplies.
Additionally, GENESYS is the primary model used to assess the impacts and costs of non-power related constraints placed on the operation of hydroelectric facilities. The majority of these constraints are intended to protect, mitigate and enhance fish and wildlife populations that could be threatened by the hydroelectric system. This type of analysis is critical toward the development of the Council’s Fish and Wildlife Program and has also proven to be very valuable in assessing the impacts of biological opinion directives related to the operation of the hydroelectric system.
GENESYS is also used extensively for climate change studies, for short-term extreme weather studies (e.g. very dry or very wet years) and to assess resource cost-effectiveness.
Usage in the 2021 Power Plan
- GENESYS was used in the 2021 Power Plan for extensive information on current modeling methodology.
- In developing the plan, the Council held a 3-day technical conference in 2021 on the newly remodeled GENESYS.
GENESYS redevelopment (2016-2019)
The Seventh Power Plan identified the redevelopment of GENESYS as part of two Council action items (ANLYS-22 and ANLYS-23). The redevelopment was a collaborative effort between the Council, the Bonneville Power Administration, regional utilities and other interested parties.
Redevelopment stakeholder meetings
- July 2018: Demonstration of redeveloped GENESYS and discussion of methodology
- August 2016: Project approach, draft requirement specifications
- March 2016: Discussion of existing functionality and strawman proposals
Key improvements proposed
- Time-dependent nature of the hourly hydro capability – model cascading of multiple dams as part of the system dispatch (i.e. simulate plant-specific hourly dispatch as opposed to aggregate hourly hydro dispatch)
- Interaction between assignment of reserves and system capacity – incorporate reserves into an optimized dispatch
- Trade-off between decisions for economics and adequacy – improved market representation
- Representation of limitations on operators in dispatching the system – add fuel accounting and forecast error
Project schedule
- Spring/Summer/Fall 2016: Develop redevelopment requirements
- Winter 2016/2017: Finalize plan for redevelopment
- Winter/Spring 2017: Issue RFP and select vendor (selected PSR, Inc.)
- Spring/Summer 2017: Finish GENESYS specifications and algorithms and begin code work and testing cycles working with vendor
- Fall 2017 through 2019: Vendor and Council complete redevelopment
Materials
- Redevelopment requirement specifications (2016)
- Current functionality documentation (2016)
- Draft redevelopment approach presentation (2016)
More background on GENESYS
Utility planners have historically used a simple comparison between available resources and expected loads to determine whether the power supply has sufficient generating capability to provide adequate service to customers. This deterministic measure, commonly referred to as the load/resource balance, is still being reported in BPA’s White Book and PNUCC’s Northwest Regional Forecast reports. Since about 1999, however, it was becoming more apparent to planners that a better measure was needed. It was in that year that the Council, with help from other regional entities, developed the GENESYS model to provide a better estimate of the power supply’s adequacy.
GENESYS determines the likelihood that a future year’s power supply will be inadequate by simulating the operation of generating resources for that year thousands of times, each time varying the conditions under which that supply operates. The likelihood of experiencing a shortfall anytime during the year is referred to as the loss of load probability (LOLP) and the Council has set the maximum allowed value for the LOLP at 5 percent. In other words, as long as the LOLP remains at or below 5 percent, the power supply is deemed adequate.