Council analysts prepare forecasts of the Northwest’s economy, electricity demand, wholesale power prices, and for prices of fuels like natural gas. Staff also develop load forecasts for electric vehicles, data centers, and other regional sectors, and analyze the economic structure of power markets.
Wholesale Power Markets Study and Avoided Emission Rates Forecasts
Date: September 2024
Description: The Council’s annual market study provides a forecast of Mid-C market prices, avoided emissions rates and information on the associated fundamentals. The linked 2024 Wholesale Market Study results are as have been presented to the System Analysis Advisory Committee (SAAC) and the Council with one exception. Due to some concern on the size of buildouts and based on feedback from the SAAC, a new set of the same scenarios was run with a maximum build of no more than 18% annual planning reserve margin imposed in each operating pool. This maximum yielded smaller, less expensive, adequate buildouts that complied with policies and thus the results from these scenarios are included with the other studies for reference.
Products:
- Buildouts – WECC-wide buildout information (All scenarios)
- Prices – Mid-Columbia price under different hydro runoff conditions and gas prices (sampled scenarios)
- Avoided Emissions Rates – Avoided market emissions rates (sampled scenarios)
- Summary presentation to Council
Pacific Northwest Power Supply Adequacy Assessment
Date: August 2024
Description: The Council produces this assessment about annually. It is also included as a part of the Power Plan when it is produced about every five years.
Products:
- Adequacy Assessment for 2029 (August 2024)
- Summary presentation to Council (July 2024)
Contact: Dor Hirsh Bar Gai
Other forecasts:
- Wholesale Electricity Market Price and Avoided Emission Rates Forecasts (2023)
- Fuels forecasts
- Electric vehicles (contact Steve Simmons)
- Transportation & Behind-the-Meter Solar Forecast (2021)
More information on forecasting and adequacy reports:
- 2021 Power Plan Adequacy Overview
- Adequacy Assessment in our Reports area (specific link)
- Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee
- Contact Chad Madron for more information and scheduling staff meetings to discuss forecasts